Daily AI Holiday Gap Risk Report — Live Mid-Session Run — Friday, September 4, 2026

Jump to Gap Board NDX RUT SPX DJX Breakevens Big Move Clock Calendar Playbook

⚠️

A blowout August payroll print revived Fed rate-hike odds and put the squeeze on equities heading into a three-day Labor Day weekend, though AI deal-flow provided a partial offset for tech

Closes: SPX −0.51% / NDX −0.06% / RUT +0.03% / DJX −0.70%. The drift+skew lean spreads 56–65% down across the four, tracking each index’s own read rather than a single pinned number. The live catalyst: August jobs report crushes estimates.

🎯 The 60-Second Read

How the four closed. DJX was weakest at −0.70%; RUT was strongest at +0.03%. This was a mixed session.
Highest gap risk: NDX (overnight ±0.76%, 1-week ±2.39%). Calmest: DJX (overnight ±0.52%).
The lean moves with the tape. The drift+skew engine spreads the overnight lean from ~56% down (NDX) to ~65% down (DJX) — each index’s own read, not one pinned number.
Jobs beat = hike risk: August payrolls printed decisively above consensus — the unemployment rate held steady. Market-implied September hike odds are now roughly 50-50; CPI on Sep 11 and PPI on Sep 10 are the true swing factors before the FOMC meets Sep 15–16.
NVDA/Hugging Face: Jensen Huang confirmed a ~$13B acquisition of the leading open-source AI platform — positive for NDX AI sentiment, but the deal is a known catalyst heading into the holiday; its marginal Tuesday impact may be muted unless regulatory headlines emerge over the weekend.
AVGO drag vs. NVDA bid: Broadcom's cautious Q4 revenue guide is a net headwind for the semiconductor sub-group even as NVDA's AI ecosystem bet provides an offset — watch the SOX to calibrate Tuesday tech direction.
⚠ Watch: Watch Tuesday's open for whether the overnight bid holds after three days of no liquidity — the holiday gap stretches the implied move window and any geopolitical headline over the weekend around the Iran-oil complex lands with no same-day hedge. The lean for Tuesday is 59 / 56 before any weekend developments are priced in. SPX 30-day implied vol is 11.80.

1 The Gap Board — Tap An Index To Jump To Its Card

Index (ETF)	Live	Day %	Impl. Overnight Move	Lean	Overnight Gap Dial	Key Whole-# Levels
NDX (QQQ)	29,464	−0.1%	±0.76% 225p	56% down	High	S 29,000 / 29,250 · R 29,500 / 29,750
RUT (IWM)	2,969	+0.0%	±0.74% 22p	62% down	High	S 2,925 / 2,950 · R 3,000 / 3,025
SPX (SPY)	7,708	−0.5%	±0.53% 41p	59% down	Elevated	S 7,625 / 7,675 · R 7,750 / 7,800
DJX (DIA)	533.1	−0.7%	±0.52% 2.8p	65% down	Elevated	S 529 / 531 · R 535 / 537

Breadth read: this was a mixed session. The gradient, strongest to weakest: RUT +0.03% > NDX −0.06% > SPX −0.51% > DJX −0.70%. When all four move together it points to a genuine risk shift; when they split, it is more often rotation or positioning than a change in the overall tape.

🎯 Breakeven Calculator

Enter any two price levels — your expiration breakevens, T+0 breakevens, or the support/resistance you’d adjust at — and this returns the odds the index stays between them.

Index Horizon Hours (override) Expiration

Current price Lower level Upper level Current VIX

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Never touches either

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Touches lower

—

Touches upper

—

Touches either

Enter both levels to see the odds. “Rest of day” runs from now to today’s 4:00 PM ET close and shrinks on its own as the session runs.

How it works

It prices the implied move from the index’s own option-market volatility, tilts it for put skew (downside tails are fatter than upside) and for the directional lean in tonight’s read, then measures where your two levels fall on that distribution. The horizon sets the vol it uses: Rest of day prices off each index’s own 1-day option-implied IV and shrinks as the session runs down; Overnight, 1-Week and Expiration use its 30-day option-implied IV. Expiration counts the trading sessions between now and the date you pick — weekends and market holidays do not count — and stretches the move by the square root of that number. Note it will read wider than Overnight for tomorrow: overnight prices only the gap, a fraction of a session’s variance, while one session at Expiration is a whole trading day. The VIX, VXN, RVX, VXD readings shown in the banner are the CBOE index spots, printed for reference — they run a few points above each index’s own at-the-money IV because they price a wider strip of out-of-the-money options, which is why they never match the band vol exactly.

Touch odds are the headline. “Never touches either” asks whether price stays inside your range the whole way — not merely where it finishes. That matters because a level that gets tagged intraday has already forced your decision, even if price closes back inside. Closing odds flatter a range; touch odds tell you what you’ll actually live through.

The current-vol box is a what-if on volatility — type an actual reading, not a point change, and the bands re-scale. What it asks for depends on the horizon. Overnight and 1-week pre-fill with the vol-index spot captured at the run (VIX for SPX); type the current reading and the bands shift with it. Rest of day asks for the 1-day reading — where no live VIX1D was captured the field starts empty; chart it and type the current value, and it sizes the intraday bands directly. Until then, rest-of-day uses that index’s own 1-day IV.

⚠ These are estimates, and they age. Volatility, skew and the directional lean are frozen at the ~11:30 AM ET run that produced this page — only your inputs and the clock keep updating. Run this during the session that follows and it’s working from a live picture. Run it a day later, or after a gap or a volatility spike, and the inputs behind it are stale even though the numbers still move. Check back for the next report for anything current. Options-implied probabilities are a description of what the market is pricing, not a forecast — and nothing here accounts for your position size, spreads or fills.

Runs entirely in your browser. Nothing is sent anywhere, and it makes no network calls.

↑ Gap Board

NDX Nasdaq-100 · QQQ

Live 29,464 (−0.06%) · overnight 1SD ±0.76% (±225 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±2.39% · Tech torn between a blockbuster AI acquisition and a rising rate threat — net result: near flat but restless

Holiday gap — odds Tuesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 29,464)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~56% down / ~44% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%29,31725% 24%29,612

0.5–1%29,17018% 14%29,759

1–1.5%29,0229% 5%29,906

1.5–2%28,8753% 1%30,054

>2%<28,8751% 0%>30,054

This is a live mid-session run into a holiday gap into Tuesday (this session’s close → Tuesday open) — the band is bumped ~25% for the extra closed-market days; the lean blends the directional read (overnight futures + short-term trend + gamma regime) with the options put-skew that shapes the tails. Each row is a band (a slice of where Tuesday’s open could land) and the odds it lands in that slice; the worst lvl is the far edge of the slice. Because the bands don’t overlap, the odds add up — all down bands sum to the down lean, all up bands to the up lean, everything to 100%. For a level between the marks, use the Breakeven Calculator up top. Vol: NDX 30D IV 17.00 · 1-day 14.0 · VXN 19.78

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) On a calm day big options dealers buy dips and sell rips — a shock absorber that fades moves (a positive cushion). NDX is near its ~29,250 cushion line. Hold above it and dip-buying keeps pullbacks shallow; lose it overnight and the shock absorber weakens. Tonight’s lean sits at ~56% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 29,464)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~54% down / ~46% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%29,17016% 16%29,759

1–2%28,87514% 13%30,054

2–3%28,58010% 9%30,348

3–4%28,2867% 5%30,643

>4%<28,2867% 3%>30,643

This is the 1-week outlook — the implied move over the next ~5 trading sessions from each index’s own option-implied vol (no weekend bump; full-session variance). Each row is a band and the odds it lands in that slice; the worst lvl is the far edge. The bands don’t overlap, so the odds add up. Probabilities are options-implied estimates, not predictions — verify the live catalysts before acting.

HIGH

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance29,50029,750

Live29,464

Overnight 1SD29,240 – 29,689

1-week 1SD28,759 – 30,170

Support29,25029,000

Cushion line~29,250

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±2.39% (±706 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 21%
range 28,759 – 30,170

ELEVATED

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: NDX is navigating a two-sided story. The NVDA–Hugging Face deal — confirmed by Jensen Huang Thursday and valued at roughly $13 billion — lit a bid under mega-cap AI names. But Broadcom's cautious Q4 revenue guide and AVGO's intraday decline reminded the tape that guide-downs punish even strong earners. Sitting just below its 20-day moving average with the 10-year yield at multi-year highs, NDX is anchored by rate pressure while AI deal momentum provides a soft floor.

↩ Gap-fill: NDX holiday gaps — where Friday's close is the gap-from point and Tuesday is the first re-pricing — have a moderate historical fill rate when the gap is driven by macro (jobs/rates) rather than a single-stock shock; the 1SD overnight band is wide enough to absorb most routine weekend drift, but a geopolitical flare over the long weekend could expand the range materially.

↑ Gap Board

RUT Russell 2000 · IWM

Live 2,969 (+0.03%) · overnight 1SD ±0.74% (±22 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±2.31% · Small-caps in the weakest technical posture of the four — rate sensitivity hits hardest here

Holiday gap — odds Tuesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 2,969)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~62% down / ~38% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%2,95426% 23%2,984

0.5–1%2,93920% 11%2,999

1–1.5%2,92510% 3%3,014

1.5–2%2,9104% 1%3,029

>2%<2,9101% 0%>3,029

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) Dealer positioning in RUT currently reads negative — instead of absorbing moves, dealers amplify them, so pushes tend to extend rather than fade. ~2,950 is the level to watch; losing it overnight would deepen the move. Tonight’s lean sits at ~62% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 2,969)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~57% down / ~43% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%2,93917% 16%2,999

1–2%2,91015% 13%3,029

2–3%2,88011% 8%3,058

3–4%2,8507% 4%3,088

>4%<2,8507% 2%>3,088

HIGH

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance3,0003,025

Live2,969

Overnight 1SD2,947 – 2,991

1-week 1SD2,901 – 3,038

Support2,9502,925

Cushion line~2,950

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±2.31% (±69 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 19%
range 2,901 – 3,038

ELEVATED

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: RUT is the index most directly punished by the jobs report's rate-hike signal. Small and mid-cap companies carry higher floating-rate debt loads and thinner margins, so any increment in the probability of a September Fed hike is a direct headwind to earnings. The index sits below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages with slightly negative five-day momentum — the weakest trend profile in this packet. Gamma regime is negative, meaning dealer hedging can amplify moves in either direction.

↩ Gap-fill: RUT's holiday gap-fill odds are lower than large-cap peers when the gap is driven by a hawkish macro catalyst — small-caps tend to gap and hold (or extend) rather than reverse when rates are the driver. Treat the Tuesday open as a fresh directional read, not a reversion setup.

↑ Gap Board

SPX S&P 500 · SPY

Live 7,708 (−0.51%) · overnight 1SD ±0.53% (±41 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±1.66% · Broad market absorbing the jobs shock with relative composure — positive gamma cushions the swings

Holiday gap — odds Tuesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 7,708)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~59% down / ~41% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%7,67035% 30%7,747

0.5–1%7,63119% 10%7,785

1–1.5%7,5935% 1%7,824

1.5–2%7,5541% 0%7,862

>2%<7,5540% 0%>7,862

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) On a calm day big options dealers buy dips and sell rips — a shock absorber that fades moves (a positive cushion). SPX is near its ~7,675 cushion line. Hold above it and dip-buying keeps pullbacks shallow; lose it overnight and the shock absorber weakens. Tonight’s lean sits at ~59% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 7,708)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~55% down / ~45% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%7,63123% 22%7,785

1–2%7,55417% 14%7,862

2–3%7,47710% 6%7,940

3–4%7,4004% 2%8,017

>4%<7,4001% 0%>8,017

ELEVATED

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance7,7507,800

Live7,708

Overnight 1SD7,668 – 7,749

1-week 1SD7,580 – 7,836

Support7,6757,625

Cushion line~7,675

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±1.66% (±128 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 7%
range 7,580 – 7,836

ELEVATED

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: SPX is broadly feeling the drag from re-priced September FOMC hike odds — market pricing has moved to roughly 50-50 hike/hold, per commentary from Fifth Third's chief economist after the print. Fed Governor Waller's Thursday remarks that his bias will be determined by August inflation data kept the door open for a hold, but the strong jobs number narrows his comfort zone. Nine of eleven S&P sectors finished higher Thursday, providing a breadth cushion, but Friday's session tone is cautious.

↩ Gap-fill: SPX large-cap positive-gamma environments tend to dampen Tuesday's open move relative to what a raw weekend-drift model implies — dealer hedging acts as a speed-bump. Gap fills are more likely here than in RUT, provided no weekend macro shock changes the narrative.

↑ Gap Board

DJX Dow Jones · DIA

Live 533.1 (−0.70%) · overnight 1SD ±0.52% (±2.8 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±1.63% · Industrials and cyclicals drag the Dow — rate-sensitive value names feeling the yield pain most acutely

Holiday gap — odds Tuesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 533.1)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~65% down / ~35% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%530.437% 27%535.8

0.5–1%527.822% 7%538.4

1–1.5%525.16% 1%541.1

1.5–2%522.41% 0%543.8

>2%<522.40% 0%>543.8

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) On a calm day big options dealers buy dips and sell rips — a shock absorber that fades moves (a positive cushion). DJX is near its ~531 cushion line. Hold above it and dip-buying keeps pullbacks shallow; lose it overnight and the shock absorber weakens. Tonight’s lean sits at ~65% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 533.1)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~59% down / ~41% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%527.824% 21%538.4

1–2%522.419% 13%543.8

2–3%517.111% 5%549.1

3–4%511.84% 1%554.4

>4%<511.82% 0%>554.4

ELEVATED

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance535537

Live533.1

Overnight 1SD530.3 – 535.9

1-week 1SD524.4 – 541.8

Support531529

Cushion line~531

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±1.63% (±9 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 7%
range 524.4 – 541.8

ELEVATED

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: DJX carries the weakest single-day reading today and sits below its 20-day moving average with the most negative five-day momentum of the four indices. Elevated energy and commodity inflation from the ongoing Iran-oil geopolitical backdrop weighs on transportation and consumer-facing Dow components, while the jobs-driven yield surge adds pressure to the rate-sensitive financials and real estate adjacent names in the index. Campbell's Company's earnings miss and guidance cut added modest consumer-staples color to the day.

↩ Gap-fill: DJX holiday gaps driven by macro catalysts have historically been partially filled by Tuesday if the weekend is event-free — but the current geopolitical overhang (Iran/oil) makes a clean reversal less certain. Positive gamma regime provides some structural cushion.

2 Big Move Ranking with Probabilities — 1-Week Horizon

Which index is most likely to make a big move over the next ~5 trading sessions? Ranked by the options-implied probability of a >3% move in either direction this week (each index’s own option-implied vol). Each row links to that index’s full 1-week odds table above.

Rank	Index (ETF)	1-Week 1SD	Prob. of a >3% week	Lean	1-Week Dial
#1	NDX (QQQ)	±2.39% 706p	21%	54% down	Elevated
#2	RUT (IWM)	±2.31% 69p	19%	57% down	Elevated
#3	SPX (SPY)	±1.66% 128p	7%	55% down	Elevated
#4	DJX (DIA)	±1.63% 9p	7%	59% down	Elevated

How to read it: the ranking is about size, not direction — it says where the widest swings are most likely, not which way. NDX and RUT top the list (~21% and ~19% chance of a >3% week) on their richer vol; DJX is the anchor (~7%). It’s still a modest tilt, not a forecast. Pair this with the per-index 1-week tables above for the full down/up split and price targets.

3 The Overnight Clock — Where Tuesday’s Gap Gets Made

The next open is Tuesday’s (holiday gap into Tuesday). Here’s where the gap gets made:

Friday close ET (today)Final Friday tape — watch whether SPX holds above its 20-day MA into the bell; a close below adds technical weight to Tuesday's opening lean.

Friday evening ETMonitor any geopolitical headlines out of the Middle East (Iran/Hormuz/oil) — crude oil futures react Sunday evening and feed directly into Tuesday's inflation narrative.

Sunday 6 PM ETCME equity futures reopen for the Tuesday session. The Sunday evening futures print is the first live re-pricing of any weekend geopolitical or macro developments; treat it as the primary gap signal.

Wednesday Sep 10, 8:30 AM ETPPI for August (BLS confirmed). A hot print sharpens the September rate-hike case and will likely pressure bonds and equities; a soft print gives the Fed room to hold.

Friday Sep 11, 8:30 AM ETCPI for August (BLS confirmed) — the single most market-sensitive release between now and the September FOMC. This print alone could decide whether the Fed hikes or holds on Sep 16.

4 Event Calendar — Next Few Sessions

When	Event	Why it matters for the gap
Now · live	August jobs report crushes estimates	The identified driver for the current tape.
Latest closes	Cash session	SPX −0.51% / NDX −0.06% / RUT +0.03% / DJX −0.70%. SPX 30-day implied vol 11.80.
Into Tuesday’s open	Futures + Asia/Europe trade	First live read on the overnight tone. Watch NDX ~29,250 and SPX ~7,675 at the open.
Wednesday, September 10, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET	PPI (August 2026)	First inflation read of the post-Labor Day week; directly conditions Fed hike/hold calculus ahead of Sep 15–16 FOMC. A hot number could accelerate rate-hike bets and compress equities.
Friday, September 11, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET	CPI (August 2026)	The final CPI print before the September FOMC decision — described by market participants as having the power to decide whether the Fed hikes or holds. Largest known near-term risk event on the calendar.
Tuesday–Wednesday, September 15–16, 2026	FOMC Meeting — rate decision Sep 16 at 2:00 PM ET (with SEP/dot plot)	A dot-plot meeting with live hike risk. September hike/hold probability is currently ~50-50 per market pricing. This is the highest-stakes FOMC in at least a year.
Tuesday, September 8, 2026	Markets reopen after Labor Day	First session after the holiday gap. Overnight and weekend geopolitical developments (Iran/oil, any Fed speak) will be fully priced for the first time — expect elevated early volatility relative to the measured Friday tape.

⚠ Honesty note: the hard-confirmed items above are the closing levels and implied vols, fetched live at generation. PPI Sep 10 date is confirmed by official BLS.gov release schedule. CPI Sep 11 date is confirmed by official BLS and Finance Calendar sources citing the August 2026 release. FOMC Sep 15–16 date is confirmed by the Federal Reserve's own published minutes (July meeting) and multiple official-source aggregators. Labor Day closure Sep 7 and Tuesday Sep 8 reopen are confirmed by NYSE official calendar and multiple sources. All four rows are confirmed from this run's search results.

5 Overnight + 1-Week Playbook

✅ DO

Size for the gap window: This is a holiday gap into Tuesday — the implied move engine applies a 1.25× weekend bump. Use that wider band to set rational stop levels before Sunday futures reopen, not after.
Watch Sunday futures open as your first signal: The Sunday 6 PM ET CME reopen is the market's first vote on the weekend tape (geopolitics, oil, any Fed speak). A notable gap at that moment resets Tuesday's playbook.
Keep PPI Sep 10 and CPI Sep 11 front of mind: Both releases are confirmed and land before the Sep 16 FOMC decision. They are the rate-path swing factors that dwarf today's session moves in macro importance.
Respect the two-sided AI narrative: NVDA's Hugging Face deal is a genuine catalyst; AVGO's guide-down is a genuine drag. Don't extrapolate either as sector-wide without watching the SOX index on Tuesday.
Verify before acting: Every level, lean, and probability in this report is a conditional estimate — not a forecast. Confirm price levels live at Tuesday's open before committing size.
Respect the trend context — the picture is split: 1 of 4 sit above their 20-day average and 3 of 4 above their 50-day. Mixed trend — weaker evidence for either buying dips or selling rallies.

❌ DON’T

Don't assume a quiet Friday = a quiet Tuesday: The three-day weekend is liquidity-thin and geopolitical risk (Iran/oil) is elevated. A weekend headline can produce a Tuesday open far outside Friday's 1SD band.
Don't chase the NVDA acquisition pop blindly: The deal was announced Thursday and is partially priced; Tuesday's open already reflects the known catalyst. Regulatory or antitrust weekend headlines could flip the narrative.
Don't use holiday-week leans as high-conviction directional bets: The weekend bump widens the probability bands in both directions — the lean is a modest tilt, not a call.
Don't ignore RUT's technical weakness: Small-caps are below both the 20- and 50-day moving averages with negative gamma — that combination amplifies downside moves more than large-cap indices. Position sizing should reflect that asymmetry.
Don't extrapolate Friday's sector pattern: Friday's mixed tape (NDX ~flat, DJX weaker) reflects one session's reaction to the jobs print. Tuesday will re-price all of that — plus the weekend — from scratch.

How To Read This Report

Run type: Pre-market: overnight futures already trading — the direction read is sharpest. Mid-session / post-market: the direction read is driven by the drift signal (short-term trend + today’s tape + gamma) plus skew; it sharpens as overnight futures trade.
Holiday gap: This session’s close → the next session’s open — the band is bumped ~25% for the extra closed-market days.
1-Week implied move: The one-standard-deviation band over the next ~5 trading sessions, from each index’s own option-implied vol (full-session variance, no weekend bump). A size, not a direction.
Odds bands: Each row is a slice of where the open could land and the odds it lands in that slice. The worst lvl is the far (outer) edge of the slice; the near edge is the row above it. The slices don’t overlap, so the odds add up — all down bands sum to the down lean, all up bands to the up lean, everything to 100%. For a level between the marks (like your actual breakeven), use the Breakeven Calculator.
Direction Split: The band sliced into a down leg and an up leg by a model with two inputs: a directional drift (overnight futures + short-term trend + gamma regime) that sets which way it leans, and a downside skew that keeps the down tail fatter. The legs sum back to the band total. It’s a modest, conditional lean — not a forecast of what will happen.
Big Move Ranking with Probabilities: The four indices ranked by the options-implied chance of a >3% move (either direction) over the next ~5 sessions. A size ranking — where the widest swings are most likely, not which way.
Breakeven Calculator: Enter any two price levels — expiration breakevens, T+0 breakevens, or support/resistance — and it returns the odds the index stays between them, evaluated at your exact levels rather than the round-percent band marks. Three horizons: rest of day (now → today’s 4:00 PM ET close, taken from your computer’s clock, so it tightens on its own through the afternoon), overnight, and 1-week.
Touch vs. ends-up: These are different questions and the gap between them is wide. Touch = the odds price reaches your level at any point before the horizon. Ends up = the odds it’s past your level when the horizon arrives. Touch is roughly double ends-up, because price can tag a level and come back. If you adjust or exit when a level trades, touch is your number — ends-up will flatter the position.
σ distance: Each level is also shown as a distance in standard deviations from your reference price. This is usually the fastest read in the whole tool: a level 1σ away is genuinely in play, one 3σ away is background noise. When your two levels sit at very different σ, the risk isn’t two-sided — it’s all on the near side.
Current price / Current vol: The calculator starts from the price baked in at generation, but you can type the live price from your platform and everything re-computes around it. The current-vol box does the same for volatility, and it takes an actual value, not a point change. On overnight/1-week it’s pre-filled with the run’s vol-index spot (VIX for SPX) — overwrite it with the current reading. On rest of day it asks for the 1-day reading; where no live VIX1D was captured it starts empty — chart it and type it, and it sizes the intraday bands directly (the index’s own 1-day IV is used until you do). Both are manual on purpose: the report never calls out to the internet.
Risk dials: Calm / Elevated / High / Extreme — computed from the implied move size, with matching thresholds at both horizons so “Elevated” means the same vol regime on the overnight and 1-week rows.
The Cushion (gamma): Positive = dealers buy dips/sell rips, moves fade. Negative = dealers amplify moves; pushes extend. Thin = no reliable positioning read. Computed from live options data where available.
Whole-number levels: Round numbers act as magnets (option open-interest clusters there). Approximate — re-verify live.
Breadth read: The spread between the four indices is a signal: a narrow tech move is positioning; a broad one is real risk-on/off.

Educational purposes only — not investment advice. The Freedom Management Group, Inc. d/b/a Michael Wade Trade Coaching is not a broker, adviser, or fiduciary. All trades are at your own risk; past performance does not guarantee future results. Options involve substantial risk and you can lose more than your investment — always paper trade first before risking real money. This report is generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence, and AI can make mistakes. The analysis, prices, technical levels, earnings dates, probabilities, and figures herein are produced by automated models that may misinterpret data, rely on sources that are outdated or inaccurate, or generate confident-sounding output that is simply wrong. Probabilities are options-implied estimates, not predictions, and real-world tails are fatter than a normal curve. Nothing here has been independently verified by a licensed professional. Always confirm every data point, price, and date against your own brokerage and primary sources before acting, and treat this report as a starting point for your own research — never as a substitute for your own judgment. By using our services, you agree to our Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Live Mid-Session Run, time-stamped Friday, September 4, 2026, ~11:30 AM ET, into a holiday gap into Tuesday with a 1-week outlook — it goes stale quickly. Index levels and % moves are live index prints (SPX −0.51% / NDX −0.06% / RUT +0.03% / DJX −0.70%). Band vols: NDX own ATM chain IV, RUT own ATM chain IV, SPX own ATM chain IV, DJX own ATM chain IV. Where shown, VIX/VXN/VXD spots are reference readings only — they price a wider options strip and sit a few points above the ATM IV that sizes the bands. The dealer-gamma regime is computed from live options positioning data where available. The per-index directional signal is mechanical (trend/momentum/futures), with a small analyst catalyst nudge. Re-verify before trading. Nothing here is a directive to trade.

Daily AI Holiday Gap Risk Report · deterministic engine v2 · drift+skew lean · disjoint bands · breakeven calculator (touch odds + intraday clock) · Trade Club AI · Generated 2026-09-04 (live mid-session run) · mwtradecoach.com