Daily AI Overnight Gap Risk Report — Live Mid-Session Run — Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Jump to Gap Board NDX RUT SPX DJX Breakevens Big Move Clock Calendar Playbook

⚠️

Stocks return from Labor Day into a three-way headwind — surging crude, fresh Canada tariffs, and a hawkish jobs print — leaving the Dow as the session's clearest loser while tech holds its ground.

Closes: SPX −0.30% / NDX +0.17% / RUT −0.22% / DJX −0.97%. The drift+skew lean spreads 52–71% down across the four, tracking each index’s own read rather than a single pinned number. The live catalyst: Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities; Canada tariffs live.

🎯 The 60-Second Read

How the four closed. DJX was weakest at −0.97%; NDX was strongest at +0.17%. This was a mixed session.
Highest gap risk: NDX (overnight ±0.66%, 1-week ±2.61%). Calmest: DJX (overnight ±0.45%).
The lean moves with the tape. The drift+skew engine spreads the overnight lean from ~52% down (NDX) to ~71% down (DJX) — each index’s own read, not one pinned number.
Three-front headwind: oil (Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities), rates (hot August payrolls revived September hike odds), and trade (Canada tariffs now live) — all active simultaneously, which is why DJX is underperforming NDX by the widest margin in the session.
FOMC quiet period is already running (started Saturday, September 5) — no Fed speakers can talk markets off the ledge before the September 16 decision. The next scheduled voice is the rate decision itself.
Oracle (ORCL) after Wednesday's close is the near-term sentiment hinge for NDX and AI-exposed names — a cloud backlog beat could partially offset the macro drag; a miss or negative margin guidance could widen the 52 tilt sharply.
⚠ Watch: Wednesday's open will be shaped by how oil settles into the close and whether Iran-related headlines escalate or pause overnight. The bigger detonator is Thursday's PPI at 8:30 AM ET, which front-runs Friday's CPI and lands just 48 hours before the Fed quiet period ends. SPX 30-day implied vol is 12.70.

1 The Gap Board — Tap An Index To Jump To Its Card

Index (ETF)	Live	Day %	Impl. Overnight Move	Lean	Overnight Gap Dial	Key Whole-# Levels
NDX (QQQ)	29,594	+0.2%	±0.66% 197p	52% down	High	S 29,000 / 29,400 · R 29,750 / 30,000
RUT (IWM)	2,969	−0.2%	±0.62% 18p	64% down	Elevated	S 2,900 / 2,950 · R 3,000 / 3,025
SPX (SPY)	7,696	−0.3%	±0.46% 35p	61% down	Elevated	S 7,600 / 7,650 · R 7,750 / 7,800
DJX (DIA)	529.0	−1.0%	±0.45% 2.4p	71% down	Elevated	S 522 / 526 · R 532 / 535

Breadth read: this was a mixed session. The gradient, strongest to weakest: NDX +0.17% > RUT −0.22% > SPX −0.30% > DJX −0.97%. When all four move together it points to a genuine risk shift; when they split, it is more often rotation or positioning than a change in the overall tape.

🎯 Breakeven Calculator

Enter any two price levels — your expiration breakevens, T+0 breakevens, or the support/resistance you’d adjust at — and this returns the odds the index stays between them.

Index Horizon Hours (override) Expiration

Current price Lower level Upper level Current VIX

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Never touches either

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Touches lower

—

Touches upper

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Touches either

Enter both levels to see the odds. “Rest of day” runs from now to today’s 4:00 PM ET close and shrinks on its own as the session runs.

How it works

It prices the implied move from the index’s own option-market volatility, tilts it for put skew (downside tails are fatter than upside) and for the directional lean in tonight’s read, then measures where your two levels fall on that distribution. The horizon sets the vol it uses: Rest of day prices off each index’s own 1-day option-implied IV and shrinks as the session runs down; Overnight, 1-Week and Expiration use its 30-day option-implied IV. Expiration counts the trading sessions between now and the date you pick — weekends and market holidays do not count — and stretches the move by the square root of that number. Note it will read wider than Overnight for tomorrow: overnight prices only the gap, a fraction of a session’s variance, while one session at Expiration is a whole trading day. The VIX, VXN, RVX, VXD readings shown in the banner are the CBOE index spots, printed for reference — they run a few points above each index’s own at-the-money IV because they price a wider strip of out-of-the-money options, which is why they never match the band vol exactly.

Touch odds are the headline. “Never touches either” asks whether price stays inside your range the whole way — not merely where it finishes. That matters because a level that gets tagged intraday has already forced your decision, even if price closes back inside. Closing odds flatter a range; touch odds tell you what you’ll actually live through.

The current-vol box is a what-if on volatility — type an actual reading, not a point change, and the bands re-scale. What it asks for depends on the horizon. Overnight and 1-week pre-fill with the vol-index spot captured at the run (VIX for SPX); type the current reading and the bands shift with it. Rest of day asks for the 1-day reading — where no live VIX1D was captured the field starts empty; chart it and type the current value, and it sizes the intraday bands directly. Until then, rest-of-day uses that index’s own 1-day IV.

⚠ These are estimates, and they age. Volatility, skew and the directional lean are frozen at the ~11:30 AM ET run that produced this page — only your inputs and the clock keep updating. Run this during the session that follows and it’s working from a live picture. Run it a day later, or after a gap or a volatility spike, and the inputs behind it are stale even though the numbers still move. Check back for the next report for anything current. Options-implied probabilities are a description of what the market is pricing, not a forecast — and nothing here accounts for your position size, spreads or fills.

Runs entirely in your browser. Nothing is sent anywhere, and it makes no network calls.

↑ Gap Board

NDX Nasdaq-100 · QQQ

Live 29,594 (+0.17%) · overnight 1SD ±0.66% (±197 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±2.61% · Tech is the relative safe harbor today — barely red while the rest of the tape sags.

Overnight gap — odds Wednesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 29,594)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~52% down / ~48% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%29,44627% 28%29,742

0.5–1%29,29817% 15%29,890

1–1.5%29,1507% 4%30,038

1.5–2%29,0022% 1%30,186

>2%<29,0020% 0%>30,186

This is a live mid-session run into a overnight gap into Wednesday (this session’s close → Wednesday open) — the lean blends the directional read (overnight futures + short-term trend + gamma regime) with the options put-skew that shapes the tails. Each row is a band (a slice of where Wednesday’s open could land) and the odds it lands in that slice; the worst lvl is the far edge of the slice. Because the bands don’t overlap, the odds add up — all down bands sum to the down lean, all up bands to the up lean, everything to 100%. For a level between the marks, use the Breakeven Calculator up top. Vol: NDX 30D IV 18.50 · 1-day 16.9 · VXN 21.58

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) On a calm day big options dealers buy dips and sell rips — a shock absorber that fades moves (a positive cushion). NDX is near its ~29,400 cushion line. Hold above it and dip-buying keeps pullbacks shallow; lose it overnight and the shock absorber weakens. Tonight’s lean sits at ~52% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 29,594)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~52% down / ~48% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%29,29815% 15%29,890

1–2%29,00213% 13%30,186

2–3%28,70610% 9%30,482

3–4%28,4107% 6%30,778

>4%<28,4108% 5%>30,778

This is the 1-week outlook — the implied move over the next ~5 trading sessions from each index’s own option-implied vol (no weekend bump; full-session variance). Each row is a band and the odds it lands in that slice; the worst lvl is the far edge. The bands don’t overlap, so the odds add up. Probabilities are options-implied estimates, not predictions — verify the live catalysts before acting.

HIGH

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance29,75030,000

Live29,594

Overnight 1SD29,397 – 29,790

1-week 1SD28,823 – 30,365

Support29,40029,000

Cushion line~29,400

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±2.61% (±771 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 25%
range 28,823 – 30,365

HIGH

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: NDX is absorbing the macro headwind better than any other index, held up by mega-cap names that benefit from a flight-to-quality rotation within equities. Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft are noted laggards inside the index, but the AI infrastructure theme — with Oracle Q1 FY2027 results due Wednesday after-close — is keeping a bid under the cloud and semiconductor cohort. The positive-gamma regime (market-maker hedging that dampens swings) acts as a natural shock absorber at current levels.

↩ Gap-fill: Overnight gaps in NDX that open inside the one-standard-deviation band in a positive-gamma environment tend to fill within the session at a better-than-average rate. If the oil catalyst cools before Wednesday's open, a partial fill back toward Tuesday's close is the base case.

↑ Gap Board

RUT Russell 2000 · IWM

Live 2,969 (−0.22%) · overnight 1SD ±0.62% (±18 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±2.42% · Small-caps are the pressure point — below both key moving averages with a negative-gamma regime amplifying moves.

Overnight gap — odds Wednesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 2,969)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~64% down / ~36% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%2,95431% 25%2,984

0.5–1%2,93922% 9%2,999

1–1.5%2,9249% 2%3,014

1.5–2%2,9102% 0%3,028

>2%<2,9100% 0%>3,028

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) Dealer positioning in RUT currently reads negative — instead of absorbing moves, dealers amplify them, so pushes tend to extend rather than fade. ~2,950 is the level to watch; losing it overnight would deepen the move. Tonight’s lean sits at ~64% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 2,969)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~59% down / ~41% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%2,93916% 15%2,999

1–2%2,91015% 12%3,028

2–3%2,88011% 8%3,058

3–4%2,8508% 4%3,088

>4%<2,8508% 3%>3,088

ELEVATED

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance3,0003,025

Live2,969

Overnight 1SD2,951 – 2,987

1-week 1SD2,897 – 3,041

Support2,9502,900

Cushion line~2,950

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±2.42% (±72 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 22%
range 2,897 – 3,041

ELEVATED

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: RUT is the index most exposed to the domestic rate-hike repricing triggered by Friday's blowout August payrolls print. Small companies carry more floating-rate debt, so a market that is pricing a live hike risk at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting hits the Russell 2000 disproportionately. Canada's retaliatory tariffs add a second layer of pain for domestically-oriented manufacturers and industrials that populate the small-cap index. The negative-gamma regime (market-maker hedging that amplifies moves) means gaps here are stickier.

↩ Gap-fill: Negative-gamma gaps in RUT — especially when the underlying catalyst (rates + trade) is not resolved — historically fill at a below-average rate in the near term. Lean toward the gap staying open unless macro newsflow reverses.

↑ Gap Board

SPX S&P 500 · SPY

Live 7,696 (−0.30%) · overnight 1SD ±0.46% (±35 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±1.79% · The broad market is caught in the middle — not collapsing, not recovering.

Overnight gap — odds Wednesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 7,696)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~61% down / ~39% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%7,65739% 32%7,734

0.5–1%7,61918% 7%7,772

1–1.5%7,5803% 0%7,811

1.5–2%7,5420% 0%7,849

>2%<7,5420% 0%>7,849

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) On a calm day big options dealers buy dips and sell rips — a shock absorber that fades moves (a positive cushion). SPX is near its ~7,650 cushion line. Hold above it and dip-buying keeps pullbacks shallow; lose it overnight and the shock absorber weakens. Tonight’s lean sits at ~61% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 7,696)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~56% down / ~44% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%7,61922% 20%7,772

1–2%7,54217% 14%7,849

2–3%7,46510% 7%7,926

3–4%7,3885% 2%8,003

>4%<7,3882% 1%>8,003

ELEVATED

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance7,7507,800

Live7,696

Overnight 1SD7,660 – 7,731

1-week 1SD7,558 – 7,833

Support7,6507,600

Cushion line~7,650

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±1.79% (±138 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 9%
range 7,558 – 7,833

ELEVATED

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: SPX is straddling its 20-day moving average, a technically fragile perch. The session's character is rotation rather than rout: energy and defense names catch a bid from the oil spike and Middle East risk premium, while consumer discretionary and rate-sensitive sectors absorb the yield pressure. The S&P 500 index composition changes effective September 21 (additions of BE, Everpure, and Illumina; removals of TAP, TTD, and BLDR) are generating modest rebalancing flows but not driving the tape.

↩ Gap-fill: SPX in a positive-gamma regime with an elevated overnight dial typically sees partial gap-fills when the catalyst is macro rather than index-specific. Watch for fill attempts in the first 90 minutes of Wednesday's session before PPI positioning takes over Thursday morning.

↑ Gap Board

DJX Dow Jones · DIA

Live 529.0 (−0.97%) · overnight 1SD ±0.45% (±2.4 pts) · 1-week 1SD ±1.75% · The Dow is today's laggard — old-economy weights are the wrong mix for this tape.

Overnight gap — odds Wednesday opens DOWN vs UP (from 529.0)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~71% down / ~29% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤0.5%526.342% 25%531.6

0.5–1%523.723% 4%534.3

1–1.5%521.05% 0%536.9

1.5–2%518.40% 0%539.6

>2%<518.40% 0%>539.6

🛡️ What “the cushion” means (gamma, in plain English) Dealer positioning in DJX currently reads negative — instead of absorbing moves, dealers amplify them, so pushes tend to extend rather than fade. ~526 is the level to watch; losing it overnight would deepen the move. Tonight’s lean sits at ~71% down.

📆 1-Week Outlook — next ~5 trading sessions; ranked in the Big Move section below

1-Week move — odds the index closes DOWN vs UP over the next ~5 sessions (from 529.0)

Lean (direction: futures/trend + skew): ~62% down / ~38% up

bandworst lvlodds ◀ down | up ▶ oddsworst lvl

≤1%523.723% 19%534.3

1–2%518.419% 12%539.6

2–3%513.112% 5%544.8

3–4%507.86% 1%550.1

>4%<507.83% 0%>550.1

ELEVATED

Overnight gap risk

Key whole-number levels

Resistance532535

Live529.0

Overnight 1SD526.6 – 531.3

1-week 1SD519.7 – 538.2

Support526522

Cushion line~526

Round numbers act as magnets — option open-interest clusters there. Re-verify live.

1-week move ±1.75% (±9 pts)
chance of a >3% week: 9%
range 519.7 – 538.2

ELEVATED

1-week move risk

📅 Driver: DJX carries the session's heaviest loss as its price-weighted construction amplifies the drag from industrial and financial components most sensitive to rate-hike fears and Canada trade friction. The index is below both its 20- and 50-day moving averages with a negative-gamma regime, meaning the options market is providing no cushion against additional downside. Momentum over the past five sessions has already been negative, making this the weakest-trending index in the packet.

↩ Gap-fill: Negative-gamma gaps against a deteriorating trend in DJX rarely fill quickly. Unless oil reverses sharply or a de-escalation headline lands before Wednesday's open, any gap lower into Wednesday is likely to linger at least through the morning session.

2 Big Move Ranking with Probabilities — 1-Week Horizon

Which index is most likely to make a big move over the next ~5 trading sessions? Ranked by the options-implied probability of a >3% move in either direction this week (each index’s own option-implied vol). Each row links to that index’s full 1-week odds table above.

Rank	Index (ETF)	1-Week 1SD	Prob. of a >3% week	Lean	1-Week Dial
#1	NDX (QQQ)	±2.61% 771p	25%	52% down	High
#2	RUT (IWM)	±2.42% 72p	22%	59% down	Elevated
#3	SPX (SPY)	±1.79% 138p	9%	56% down	Elevated
#4	DJX (DIA)	±1.75% 9p	9%	62% down	Elevated

How to read it: the ranking is about size, not direction — it says where the widest swings are most likely, not which way. NDX and RUT top the list (~25% and ~22% chance of a >3% week) on their richer vol; DJX is the anchor (~9%). It’s still a modest tilt, not a forecast. Pair this with the per-index 1-week tables above for the full down/up split and price targets.

3 The Overnight Clock — Where Wednesday’s Gap Gets Made

The next open is Wednesday’s (overnight gap into Wednesday). Here’s where the gap gets made:

Tuesday afternoon ETWatch crude oil settle — a close above $98 Brent hardens the risk-off tone into Wednesday's open; a reversal below $96 is the first green flag for bulls.

Tuesday evening ETScan for any Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines; any tanker incident or escalation threat can re-price energy overnight and widen Wednesday's gap.

Wednesday after-close ETOracle Q1 FY2027 earnings (September 10, confirmed by multiple sources) — cloud revenue growth and RPO backlog are the two numbers NDX traders will react to in after-hours.

Thursday 8:30 AM ETAugust PPI release — the first hard inflation data since Friday's jobs shock. A hot print raises the probability of a September 16 hike and extends 64 and 71 pressure.

Friday 8:30 AM ETAugust CPI release — the final inflation input before the FOMC meeting. Consensus will be recalibrated by oil's weekly move. This is the highest single-event risk of the week for all four indices.

4 Event Calendar — Next Few Sessions

When	Event	Why it matters for the gap
Now · live	Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities; Canada tariffs live	The identified driver for the current tape.
Latest closes	Cash session	SPX −0.30% / NDX +0.17% / RUT −0.22% / DJX −0.97%. SPX 30-day implied vol 12.70.
Into Wednesday’s open	Futures + Asia/Europe trade	First live read on the overnight tone. Watch NDX ~29,400 and SPX ~7,650 at the open.
Wednesday, September 10 (after close)	Oracle (ORCL) Q1 FY2027 earnings	Largest publicly confirmed AI-infrastructure cloud backlog on the market; result moves NDX sentiment and sets tone for tech into the FOMC week.
Thursday, September 11, 8:30 AM ET	August PPI Inflation	Pipeline inflation read (prices producers receive); first hard data since hot jobs report; directly conditions September 16 FOMC hike odds.
Friday, September 12, 8:30 AM ET	August CPI Inflation	Headline consumer price index — the definitive pre-FOMC inflation verdict; oil spike this week could push the print above consensus.
Tuesday–Wednesday, September 15–16	FOMC meeting + rate decision (Wed 2 PM ET) + dot plot + press conference	First meeting with live hike risk since July; dot plot revision and Powell tone will set the volatility regime for the rest of Q3.

⚠ Honesty note: the hard-confirmed items above are the closing levels and implied vols, fetched live at generation. Oracle earnings date (September 10) confirmed by moomoo, TipRanks, and Investing.com. PPI September 10 and CPI September 11 dates confirmed by polymarkettrader.com citing BLS schedule; Kiplinger confirms PPI Thursday and CPI Friday for this week. FOMC September 15-16 confirmed by Federal Reserve official calendar via fedratecalc.com and polymarkettrader.com. Note: one source (financecalendar.com) listed Oracle as September 9 unconfirmed; the weight of sources points to September 10 after-close — treat as confirmed but verify against Oracle's IR page before acting.

5 Overnight + 1-Week Playbook

✅ DO

Size positions to the one-SD overnight band — the engine's computed range is your pre-defined risk boundary for Wednesday's open, not a target.
Respect the FOMC quiet period: no Fed speaker can walk back a hawkish interpretation between now and September 17 — assume the rate path stays binary until the decision.
Watch crude as the gap governor: oil's direction in the final hour of Tuesday and in Asian trade Wednesday morning is the best leading indicator for Wednesday's open lean.
If holding short-dated options (instruments that expire soon) through Thursday's PPI or Friday's CPI, account for the vol-crush (implied volatility drop) that often follows the print even if the move is large.
Verify before acting — calendar dates in this report are search-confirmed but market conditions evolve; check Oracle IR and BLS.gov for official release times before positioning around those events.
Respect the trend context — the picture is split: 1 of 4 sit above their 20-day average and 2 of 4 above their 50-day. Mixed trend — weaker evidence for either buying dips or selling rallies.

❌ DON’T

Do not fade a negative-gamma gap in RUT or DJX without a confirmed catalyst reversal — negative gamma means the market-maker flow amplifies, not cushions, the move.
Do not assume the oil spike is transient — the Strait of Hormuz risk premium can persist for days to weeks if diplomatic channels remain closed.
Do not extrapolate NDX's relative strength into a directional call — 52 still tilts the same direction as the other indices, just less aggressively.
Do not ignore the Canada tariff story as 'priced in' — retaliatory escalation is non-linear and a second tranche announcement would hit DJX industrials harder.
Do not trade around Oracle earnings without checking the implied move priced by the options market — the stock's own vol surface is the only honest sizing guide.

How To Read This Report

Run type: Pre-market: overnight futures already trading — the direction read is sharpest. Mid-session / post-market: the direction read is driven by the drift signal (short-term trend + today’s tape + gamma) plus skew; it sharpens as overnight futures trade.
Overnight gap: This session’s close → the next session’s open (~1 closed night), so the implied band is the plain overnight 1SD.
1-Week implied move: The one-standard-deviation band over the next ~5 trading sessions, from each index’s own option-implied vol (full-session variance, no weekend bump). A size, not a direction.
Odds bands: Each row is a slice of where the open could land and the odds it lands in that slice. The worst lvl is the far (outer) edge of the slice; the near edge is the row above it. The slices don’t overlap, so the odds add up — all down bands sum to the down lean, all up bands to the up lean, everything to 100%. For a level between the marks (like your actual breakeven), use the Breakeven Calculator.
Direction Split: The band sliced into a down leg and an up leg by a model with two inputs: a directional drift (overnight futures + short-term trend + gamma regime) that sets which way it leans, and a downside skew that keeps the down tail fatter. The legs sum back to the band total. It’s a modest, conditional lean — not a forecast of what will happen.
Big Move Ranking with Probabilities: The four indices ranked by the options-implied chance of a >3% move (either direction) over the next ~5 sessions. A size ranking — where the widest swings are most likely, not which way.
Breakeven Calculator: Enter any two price levels — expiration breakevens, T+0 breakevens, or support/resistance — and it returns the odds the index stays between them, evaluated at your exact levels rather than the round-percent band marks. Three horizons: rest of day (now → today’s 4:00 PM ET close, taken from your computer’s clock, so it tightens on its own through the afternoon), overnight, and 1-week.
Touch vs. ends-up: These are different questions and the gap between them is wide. Touch = the odds price reaches your level at any point before the horizon. Ends up = the odds it’s past your level when the horizon arrives. Touch is roughly double ends-up, because price can tag a level and come back. If you adjust or exit when a level trades, touch is your number — ends-up will flatter the position.
σ distance: Each level is also shown as a distance in standard deviations from your reference price. This is usually the fastest read in the whole tool: a level 1σ away is genuinely in play, one 3σ away is background noise. When your two levels sit at very different σ, the risk isn’t two-sided — it’s all on the near side.
Current price / Current vol: The calculator starts from the price baked in at generation, but you can type the live price from your platform and everything re-computes around it. The current-vol box does the same for volatility, and it takes an actual value, not a point change. On overnight/1-week it’s pre-filled with the run’s vol-index spot (VIX for SPX) — overwrite it with the current reading. On rest of day it asks for the 1-day reading; where no live VIX1D was captured it starts empty — chart it and type it, and it sizes the intraday bands directly (the index’s own 1-day IV is used until you do). Both are manual on purpose: the report never calls out to the internet.
Risk dials: Calm / Elevated / High / Extreme — computed from the implied move size, with matching thresholds at both horizons so “Elevated” means the same vol regime on the overnight and 1-week rows.
The Cushion (gamma): Positive = dealers buy dips/sell rips, moves fade. Negative = dealers amplify moves; pushes extend. Thin = no reliable positioning read. Computed from live options data where available.
Whole-number levels: Round numbers act as magnets (option open-interest clusters there). Approximate — re-verify live.
Breadth read: The spread between the four indices is a signal: a narrow tech move is positioning; a broad one is real risk-on/off.

Educational purposes only — not investment advice. The Freedom Management Group, Inc. d/b/a Michael Wade Trade Coaching is not a broker, adviser, or fiduciary. All trades are at your own risk; past performance does not guarantee future results. Options involve substantial risk and you can lose more than your investment — always paper trade first before risking real money. This report is generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence, and AI can make mistakes. The analysis, prices, technical levels, earnings dates, probabilities, and figures herein are produced by automated models that may misinterpret data, rely on sources that are outdated or inaccurate, or generate confident-sounding output that is simply wrong. Probabilities are options-implied estimates, not predictions, and real-world tails are fatter than a normal curve. Nothing here has been independently verified by a licensed professional. Always confirm every data point, price, and date against your own brokerage and primary sources before acting, and treat this report as a starting point for your own research — never as a substitute for your own judgment. By using our services, you agree to our Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Live Mid-Session Run, time-stamped Tuesday, September 8, 2026, ~11:30 AM ET, into a overnight gap into Wednesday with a 1-week outlook — it goes stale quickly. Index levels and % moves are live index prints (SPX −0.30% / NDX +0.17% / RUT −0.22% / DJX −0.97%). Band vols: NDX own ATM chain IV, RUT own ATM chain IV, SPX own ATM chain IV, DJX own ATM chain IV. Where shown, VIX/VXN/VXD spots are reference readings only — they price a wider options strip and sit a few points above the ATM IV that sizes the bands. The dealer-gamma regime is computed from live options positioning data where available. The per-index directional signal is mechanical (trend/momentum/futures), with a small analyst catalyst nudge. Re-verify before trading. Nothing here is a directive to trade.

Daily AI Overnight Gap Risk Report · deterministic engine v2 · drift+skew lean · disjoint bands · breakeven calculator (touch odds + intraday clock) · Trade Club AI · Generated 2026-09-08 (live mid-session run) · mwtradecoach.com